I came across the above post today and remembered this post when they raised monies. If the Myostatin program is potentially questionable, wouldn't this take away a near-term catalyst? https://x.com/Biohazard3737/status/1772978381249802607
I am not sure what you mean. Obviously developing new compounds is always a risky endeavor. It is "questionable" in that it is not a sure thing, which is largely point of the post—I am trying to highlight that current prices essentially estimate P(Success) at near zero which is not rational.
To the tweet re: muscle loss, I could find 5 studies saying the opposite. But it's probably easier to just think intuitively. When someone loses substantial weight through a calorie deficit (no other way!) they WILL both muscle and fat unless they are weightlifting and eating a high protein diet. Even then they will lose muscle. This is simply common sense + lived experience with everyone I have known that has lost weight. Look up photos of UFC fighters after they drop down a weight class.
Now, the key here is assuming that most patients will not lift weights and will not eat a high protein diet. These are MAJOR lifestyle changes that obese people (respectfully and as someone who has been very overweight before) have a strong revealed preference for not incorporating. If you have an option that does not come with muscle loss, it is superior.
Thanks for your thoughtful comments; the above is just my thinking on this so I am not saying you are wrong.
Thanks for the write-up, I really enjoy your investing style! :)
On topic, I like the philosophy of looking where the story should be going, and I think the logic is sound by looking towards second order "trickling" from the rapid weight-loss drug boom.
Am I to understand that a bet on iBio is not really a bet on them getting there first, but just by being in the same conversation? Also, run-rate of 1,5 years at max (probably closer to 1 year in reality since raising money doesnt happen in a day?) seems low for developing something new. Is this where their "Machine learning technology" comes in handy?
I'm new to biotech investing, so apolagies for dumb questions.
Again, thanks for the writeup. I also enjoyed your interview on the "Idea brunch"!
Thanks for the kind words! There are a few bets here.
1. Bima data will be good and Ibio will move accordingly
2. Regardless, money will flow into this subtrend as it gains more momentum and from that perspective iBio can appreciate
3. iBio won't itself succeed with myostatin but will sell off other I/O assets or call options and therefore you won't lose much and might gain a bit (perhaps lack of downside indicated by PIPE at higher price than where it's trading today)
4. This is a lower probability bet, but iBio will make a solid compound and return its market cap many times over
So, the amalgamation of these smaller bets is the "large bet" that allowed me to get comfortable with a small posiiton.
I have no idea if this post is valid, but does it change your opinion at all?: https://x.com/mohammedalo/status/1797722870363173332?s=46&t=5QVogoNEzaXWjYF3KltY6Q
Thanks for sharing! Not at all.
I came across the above post today and remembered this post when they raised monies. If the Myostatin program is potentially questionable, wouldn't this take away a near-term catalyst? https://x.com/Biohazard3737/status/1772978381249802607
I am not sure what you mean. Obviously developing new compounds is always a risky endeavor. It is "questionable" in that it is not a sure thing, which is largely point of the post—I am trying to highlight that current prices essentially estimate P(Success) at near zero which is not rational.
To the tweet re: muscle loss, I could find 5 studies saying the opposite. But it's probably easier to just think intuitively. When someone loses substantial weight through a calorie deficit (no other way!) they WILL both muscle and fat unless they are weightlifting and eating a high protein diet. Even then they will lose muscle. This is simply common sense + lived experience with everyone I have known that has lost weight. Look up photos of UFC fighters after they drop down a weight class.
Now, the key here is assuming that most patients will not lift weights and will not eat a high protein diet. These are MAJOR lifestyle changes that obese people (respectfully and as someone who has been very overweight before) have a strong revealed preference for not incorporating. If you have an option that does not come with muscle loss, it is superior.
Thanks for your thoughtful comments; the above is just my thinking on this so I am not saying you are wrong.
Thanks for the write up! Any updates to the investment thesis? seems like it took some beating recently.
Mike Taylor at Simplify Funds (PINK) would know about smart people about thus. He is on X/Twitter.
Thanks for the write-up, I really enjoy your investing style! :)
On topic, I like the philosophy of looking where the story should be going, and I think the logic is sound by looking towards second order "trickling" from the rapid weight-loss drug boom.
Am I to understand that a bet on iBio is not really a bet on them getting there first, but just by being in the same conversation? Also, run-rate of 1,5 years at max (probably closer to 1 year in reality since raising money doesnt happen in a day?) seems low for developing something new. Is this where their "Machine learning technology" comes in handy?
I'm new to biotech investing, so apolagies for dumb questions.
Again, thanks for the writeup. I also enjoyed your interview on the "Idea brunch"!
Thanks for the kind words! There are a few bets here.
1. Bima data will be good and Ibio will move accordingly
2. Regardless, money will flow into this subtrend as it gains more momentum and from that perspective iBio can appreciate
3. iBio won't itself succeed with myostatin but will sell off other I/O assets or call options and therefore you won't lose much and might gain a bit (perhaps lack of downside indicated by PIPE at higher price than where it's trading today)
4. This is a lower probability bet, but iBio will make a solid compound and return its market cap many times over
So, the amalgamation of these smaller bets is the "large bet" that allowed me to get comfortable with a small posiiton.
It seems Regeneron is more progressed on research of myostatin inhibitive monoclal antibodies. According to chatgtpt :)
what does R/R mean
Risk/Reward, sorry