I largely agree with your views here. As an example, my sister in law (this is ten years ago) didn't accept a mammogram's results, knowing that she was high density but "feeling something", re-tested and was confirmed early stage BRCA+ trip neg.........her intuition saved her live, I spoke with her yesterday after a routine follow up scan (clear).
So the density issue, while seemingly underrated by the market is HUGELY overlooked IMO. Similarly, but yet to be proven, in the cardio space.
That being said, $ICAD is an underdog despite advanced tech, and that "advanced tech" moat is subject to erosion via AI (and time). 12 -24 months is my window for increased market share and/or a buy out.
Sounds interesting although the economics of the SaaS transition dont look that compelling?
Old model 3 year total: $59k
$35k perpetual
Year 1 $8k
Year 2 $8k
Year 3 $8k
New model 3 year total: $36k
Year 1 $12k
Year 2 $12k
Year 3 $12k
The break even is after like 7-10 years
I understand there are other factors (stickiness, costs etc) and it will likely still be worth while but hugely value accretive SaaS transitions (Adobe, Microsoft etc) had much better pay back profiles.
Icad seems to be a great technology for hospitals to adopt for quick and less cost (?) radiology reading. But that means the reduced employment of radiologists. Thus, the icad assessment process by a hospital may be very slow and probably much slower than it’s expected?
I largely agree with your views here. As an example, my sister in law (this is ten years ago) didn't accept a mammogram's results, knowing that she was high density but "feeling something", re-tested and was confirmed early stage BRCA+ trip neg.........her intuition saved her live, I spoke with her yesterday after a routine follow up scan (clear).
So the density issue, while seemingly underrated by the market is HUGELY overlooked IMO. Similarly, but yet to be proven, in the cardio space.
That being said, $ICAD is an underdog despite advanced tech, and that "advanced tech" moat is subject to erosion via AI (and time). 12 -24 months is my window for increased market share and/or a buy out.
Thanks for the write up, well done! Long ICAD
Yes you're right, market will be looking for either continual real tech development OR real market capture. Thanks for the kind words!
Hi Mike - Im a radiologist and own about 2% of ICAD. happy to chat If you would like. thanks for bringing attention to this name.
Send me a dm!
substack message sent!
any insights that ensued from this? 😃
Thanks for this. How do you see / think regarding the management incentives, skin in the game, KPIs, etc?
KPIs should be pretty clear from the post; think I also talk about lack of insider buying being offputting
Hi,
Sounds interesting although the economics of the SaaS transition dont look that compelling?
Old model 3 year total: $59k
$35k perpetual
Year 1 $8k
Year 2 $8k
Year 3 $8k
New model 3 year total: $36k
Year 1 $12k
Year 2 $12k
Year 3 $12k
The break even is after like 7-10 years
I understand there are other factors (stickiness, costs etc) and it will likely still be worth while but hugely value accretive SaaS transitions (Adobe, Microsoft etc) had much better pay back profiles.
Think the article is great but misses the point on how rise in breast cancer is probably driven largely in part by the obesity epidemic
Icad seems to be a great technology for hospitals to adopt for quick and less cost (?) radiology reading. But that means the reduced employment of radiologists. Thus, the icad assessment process by a hospital may be very slow and probably much slower than it’s expected?
breakout week last week, but might get some consolidation. also waiting for the insiders to buy...
a lot of insider selling this year.